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The contribution of US bond demand to the US bond yield conundrum of 2004–2007: An empirical investigation

机译:美国债券需求对2004-2007年美国债券收益率难题的贡献:一项实证研究

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摘要

Although the federal funds rate started rising from mid-2004 US long term rates continued to fall. A likely contributory factor to this ‘conundrum’ was the contemporaneous increase in US bond demand. Using ARDL based models, which accommodate structural breaks, this paper estimates the impact of foreign and domestic demand on AAA rated US bond yields in the ‘conundrum’ period. This impact is shown to have been everywhere significantly negative. The fact that our model fully explains the ‘bond yield conundrum’ gives support to the hypothesis that the US CDO market was rapidly expanded before 2007 chiefly to absorb the overspill of global demand for safe assets. Moreover, our models demonstrate that there are strong linkages between the 10-year Treasury yield and the long term yields of AAA rated non-Treasury bonds.
机译:尽管联邦基金利率从2004年中开始开始上升,但美国长期利率继续下降。造成这一“难题”的一个可能因素是美国债券需求的同期增长。本文使用适应结构性断裂的基于ARDL的模型,估算了“难题”时期内外需求对AAA级美国债券收益率的影响。事实证明,这种影响到处都是负面的。我们的模型充分解释了“债券收益率难题”,这一事实为以下假设提供了支持:美国CDO市场在2007年之前迅速扩张,主要是为了吸收全球对安全资产需求的溢出。此外,我们的模型表明,十年期国债收益率与AAA级非国债的长期收益率之间存在很强的联系。

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